PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli, in announcing the survey findings today, said only 41% of Malay voters nationwide said they would vote for Umno if elections were called and three-cornered fights occurred.
He said about 50% of Malay voters who would vote for Umno agreed that the goods and services tax (GST) was burdensome, and would support its abolishment.
“This means that the level of support of Malay voters towards Umno will continue to fall, as Umno voters themselves feel the pinch from living costs,” he said in a statement today.
The survey was carried out to ascertain voter sentiments nationwide. It involved 5,000 registered voters chosen randomly by a computer system.
The survey also looked at the tendency of voters in marginal seats which will see close fights between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), involving 1,500 registered voters in each marginal seat.
Rafizi, who is also Pandan MP, said the level of Malay support for Umno was much more critical in key marginal states such as Kedah and Johor.
The survey found that only 31% of Malay voters in Kulim Bandar Baru and Merbok would choose Umno in a three-cornered fight, an indication that the level of Malay support in Kedah is much lower than national levels.
Similarly, only 30% of voters in Johor Bahru would vote for Umno in a three-cornered fight, Rafizi said, consistent with a study by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), which found that the level of Malay voter support for Umno in Johor was only 35%.
Rafizi said the survey also found that voter support for PAS had dropped drastically in 12 months, with only 14% of Malay voters saying they would vote for the Islamist party in a three-cornered fight.
This is an 11% drop compared to 25% of Malay voters who said they would vote for PAS in a similar survey carried out in January.
“The level of support of Malay voters for PAS is expected to drop further in the months to come. From the 14% Malay voters who said they would support PAS, only 21% said they would not go out to vote if PAS did not contest.
“A large portion of PAS voters chose to support PH if only PH and BN contest, with 51% voting for PH compared to 28% who will vote for BN,” he said.
Rafizi also noted that the level of Chinese support for PH had returned to 2013 levels, surpassing 80% this month.
Similarly, the level of Indian voter support returned to 2013 levels, with 60% towards BN and 40% towards PH.
In the event of three-cornered fights, Invoke projects that BN will win 107 parliamentary seats, PH will win 115 and PAS will be left with no seats.
In Peninsular Malaysia, PH is projected to win 102 out of 165 parliamentary seats, while BN is projected to take 63 seats.
In Sabah and Sarawak, PH is expected to take eight and five parliamentary seats respectively, while BN will be left with 14 and 26 seats, respectively.
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