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The latest Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted June 1-7, shows growth in Hong Kong will come in at 4.6% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 3.4%. Singapore’s gross domestic product is projected to expand 1.4%, down by half a percentage point, according to the survey.
“Hong Kong’s economy continues to see a consumption-driven rebound supported by tourism, boosting its short-term cyclical prospects,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis SA. Still, there are risks to the outlook from a slowdown in the global economy and rising interest rates, he said.
Economists raised their second-quarter growth forecasts by 1.7 percentage points to 3.3% in the latest survey. The economy is then expected to expand 6.7% in the third quarter and 7.1% in the final three months of the year.
In Singapore, it’s possible the economy may enter a technical recession in the first half of 2023, largely driven by the weakness in manufacturing, according to Alvin Liew, a senior economist at United Overseas Bank. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product.
Forecasts for headline consumer inflation for Singapore were raised through to next year, with economists now predicting 5% for the full year, up from 4.7% previously, and 3.1% for 2024, compared with 2.8% in the previous survey. Hong Kong’s inflation expectations were unchanged in the survey, at 2.4% and 2.3% for this year and next, respectively.
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