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Lockdowns won’t stop rise in Covid numbers, say virologists

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They expect a semblance of normalcy to return only after most Malaysians have been vaccinated.

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GEORGE TOWN:
The number of Covid-19 cases in the country will continue to rise regardless of lockdowns as highly infectious strains make their presence felt, according to two virologists from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

They say a semblance of normalcy may return when most Malaysians have been vaccinated, the number of severe cases drops and the virus becomes endemic.

Dr Kumitaa Theva Das and Dr Muhammad Amir Yunus were responding to former prime minister Najib Razak, who recently asked why the numbers had remained high despite another MCO.

Kumitaa said it was almost certain that a more infectious strain was in the midst and the positivity rate was expected to go up.

Free Malaysia Today
Dr Kumitaa Theva Das.

Referring to a recent study of 64 countries, she said the number of infections caused by the Delta variant went up by 97% in comparison to the one first seen in Wuhan, China.

“What this means is if the previous virus was transmitting from one person to two, the Delta variant now transmits to four people,” she told FMT.

Citing a June 23 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control report, she said the reproductive numbers of the Alpha variant were at 29%, Beta 25%, Gamma 38% and Delta 97%.

In Malaysia, the health ministry reported 14 cases of the Beta variant and eight cases of Delta between June 11 and 19. By June 24, 189 cases of variants of concern and interest were recorded.

Kumitaa said the focus now should not be on the country’s positivity and R-naught numbers alone, but also on the strains and how infectious they were.

“In my opinion, our country’s positivity (rate) will go up regardless of the lockdown,” she said. “This is because of the new variant. It is more infectious.

“Perhaps we could take Singapore’s approach. Once we have vaccinated the majority of our population, we can declare it as endemic, something that we will have to live with forever.

Free Malaysia Today
Dr Muhammad Amir Yunus.

“It would be similar to the flu, where people are required to take booster shots once a year.”

Amir said Covid-19 would continue to evolve as long as the chain of transmission continued.

He said the focus should thus be on vaccination.

He called for urgency in rethinking the lockdowns, saying they were proving to be ineffective in bringing down the number of cases.

“Lockdowns will no longer be the only effective measure to curb transmission in the near future,” he said.

“Also, our current lockdown measures are half-baked due to economic interest, with most factories still operating.

“With more vaccinations and a significant drop of severe Covid-19 cases, we can take the endemic route like our neighbours and look at rebuilding our economy.

“I think the least we can do now is to rethink or relook our lockdown strategy. Perhaps we can apply stricter measures in states with high numbers and loosen up in states with smaller numbers.”

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