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Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) told FMT that the PSR could lead to potential seat losses for the ruling coalition in the state as the project could develop into a key issue in Penang come GE15.
“If you look at the constituencies that will be impacted by the PSR, they are Malay-majority seats, and Malay constituents view the state government as being insensitive to their needs.
“The PSR might have a resonating effect on other Malay-majority state seats that are not even affected by the reclamation project,” Azmil said.
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Should PH, the ruling coalition in Penang, lose several seats due to the PSR, tensions within the coalition would come to a head.
“If DAP does not lose any seat despite supporting PSR but the opposite happens to PKR and Amanah at both state and national levels, it would sour the relationships between the coalition members.
“In the worst-case scenario, it could break the coalition,” he said, adding that the whole issue surrounding the project might also create a perception that PKR and Amanah were subservient to DAP.
The state constituencies that will be affected by PSR should the reclamation project go on are Batu Maung and Bayan Lepas, which now have PKR and Amanah representatives respectively.
On Umno and PAS’ prospects of winning seats in the state, Azmil said it would be “stupid” for both parties not to capitalise on the matter.
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However, Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk, another political analyst from USM, was of the opinion that the potential political risk to PH could not be gauged so easily.
“Whether or not the PSR will backfire and cause the state government to suffer politically is an open question. What is for certain is that from PKR, Nurul Izzah Anwar, in particular, has come out strongly against it,” Azeem told FMT.
He believed it would be difficult for Umno and PAS to win seats in the state by simply capitalising on the reclamation issue since their constituents were based mostly on the mainland.
“The Malay votes are split. With the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, a victory for Umno and PAS may be quite challenging,” said Azeem, who is the director of USM’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies.
Asked why the state government continued pushing for the PSR despite the political risks, Azmil said the strong, consistent support from Penangites enabled it to do so. He said Penangites would still support the state government despite their unhappiness with some of the policies.
“The Penang voters don’t want to punish PH because they are aware of the alternatives – Barisan Nasional and Gerakan – whom they despise. In this two-party system, voters view PH as the lesser of two evils and will vote for them.
“The state government is aware of this. That is why it can turn a deaf ear to the opponents of PSR. Plus, it is already dominant in the Penang state assembly,” he added.
PH currently controls 33 out of 40 seats in the state assembly.
PSR, the reclamation project proposed by the Penang state government involves the construction of three man-made islands, measuring 1800ha in total. The state government intends to sell the islands to finance its ambitious Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP).
The PTMP is a massive infrastructure project that comprises highways, light-rail transit lines, monorail lines, and a cross-strait cable car line linking the island and mainland.
The state government’s plan hit a brick wall recently when the environment department revoked the environmental impact assessment approval granted in 2019, after hearing an appeal filed against the approval by a group of fishermen from the Sungai Batu fishermen unit.
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