Leaders of both parties appear ready to work together, but grassroot members appear to be uncomfortable about emulating the cooperation practised at national level.
A senior DAP leader, asked about grassroot apathy, told FMT: “Anwar Ibrahim has only been in power for a month. The state elections must be held in eight to 10 months. The tide can change and the grassroots would learn that there are no permanent enemies in politics.”
However, it wouldn’t be easy for PH to maintain the supermajority-level of support it received in the 2018 elections, taking into account Perikatan Nasional’s rise in popularity among the Malays.
With Kepala Batas, Permatang Pauh and Tasek Gelugor lost to Perikatan Nasional in the November general election, the PH machinery will have to fight it out in Malay heartlands of Balik Pulau and Seberang Perai, to fend off the “green wave” – the term used to describe the success of the PN-PAS partnership.
Concern over PKR seats
A Pakatan Harapan insider said there were some concerns about mixed seats held by PKR which they had found difficult to retain, but added: “I believe they will turn out to be okay, given the Anwar-factor and Umno’s collaboration,”
PKR had marginal victories in seven state seats in the 2018 elections.
The insider also said the political cooperation between PH and BN leading up to the state elections was likely to be with just Umno, given the irreconcilable differences between some in PH with MCA and MIC.
“We can outdo PN by reducing one less corner in the coming state elections. If you add PH and BN numbers in GE15, we can easily win the Malay areas,” the insider said.
Why DAP-Umno ties needed
“The Chinese electorate used to be worried about DAP-Umno cooperation. But today, the Umno joint venture with PH is seen as necessary to keep PAS at bay.”
He said: “The GE15 votes is a proven metric. We already know what to expect.”
In the 40-member Penang state assembly, Pakatan Harapan holds 33 seats for a majority of more than two thirds, through DAP (19 seats), PKR (12) and Amanah (2). Umno holds 2 seats, while the opposition comprises Bersatu (4) and PAS (1).
The assembly’s term ends on Aug 2 and elections must be held within two months of the term ending, unless held earlier.
Some pushback from Umno
While Penang PH is eager to work with Umno, the latter’s grassroots feel it was too much of a bitter pill to swallow, as they were against Penang PH policies such as land reclamation.
A local Umno leader said most (grassroot members) don’t want to be with DAP as the anti-DAP doctrine had been implanted in them for a long time.
“Party leaders that hold themselves to this doctrine can’t accept the PH-BN collaboration. This is the issue that we face,” he said.
Possible election date
State assembly elections could be held in July for Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, according to a former Election Commission official.
The official had said July was a suitable time as haj pilgrims would have returned home by then.
The six state elections are expected to cost the EC RM450 million if held at the same time, and an additional RM100 million if held separately.
13 marginal seats
Checks by FMT show that there are 13 seats that are considered not safe or won marginally in 2018, of which PKR has seven, with Umno and Bersatu having two each, and Amanah and PAS having one each.
The marginal seats, with the winning party’s share of votes:
- Permatang Berangan (Umno) 37.8%,
- Pinang Tunggal (PKR) 38.7%,
- Sungai Dua (Umno) 41%,
- Bertam (Bersatu) 41.2%,
- Sungai Acheh (PKR) 44.1%,
- Telok Ayer Tawar (PKR) 44.4%,
- Penanti (PKR) 44.9%,
- Permatang Pasir (Amanah) 45.3%,
- Sungai Bakap (PKR) 45.5%,
- Telok Bahang (Bersatu) 45.6%,
- Pulau Betong (PKR) 49.6%,
- Seberang Jaya (PKR) 53.1%, and
- Penaga (PAS) 53.5%.