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The Orang Asli votes could be the decisive factor considering the 810-vote majority secured by former assemblyman Azizi Abu Naim over Barisan Nasional candidate Ab Aziz Yusoff in the last state election, said Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
The Orang Asli make up about 2,000 or 10% of the more than 20,000 voters in the Nenggiri state constituency in Kelantan.
They are concentrated in five areas: Tohoi, Simpor, Sungai Puian, Sungai Jenera and Sungai Wias.
“The 2,000 Orang Asli votes are substantial, as the state election result showed a margin of about 800 votes.
“The significance lies in whoever wins the Orang Asli votes because, based on the last state election, they are highly valuable,” Mazlan said.
He said the parties contesting the by-election should adopt a “systematic approach” to persuade the Orang Asli voters to support them.
“If there is a systematic effort to persuade them, it could be successful. Furthermore, the machinery is more organised and focused on transporting Orang Asli voters during by-elections. They won’t come out to vote on their own but need to be transported,” he said.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar noted that half of the Orang Asli voters did not turn up for the last state election, likely due to a protest related to the encroachment of their land for logging.
At that time, he said, there was a movement opposing logging in Orang Asli villages, and environmental NGOs supported them, which likely contributed to the low voter turnout.
“If the parties can address this anger, they have a high potential to gain significant support from the Orang Asli,” he said, adding that if the voter turnout remained at about 60%, the party that secured Orang Asli support would have already won Nenggiri.
“BN appears to have an advantage, as Orang Asli votes have been a reliable base for them for a long time,” said Hisommudin.
“The Orang Asli segment is actually hard for PN (Perikatan Nasional) to penetrate. It should be a fixed deposit for BN. If BN can secure 1,500 to 1,800 Orang Asli votes, and Umno’s stronghold area has 4,500 votes, it’s done.
“For the Malay segment, if BN can address the protest votes from Umno supporters in the previous general election and state elections, they also have a chance and opportunity (to win).”
The Nenggiri by-election will see a straight fight between BN’s Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani from Kelantan Umno, and PN’s Rizwadi Ismail, who recently joined Bersatu from PAS.
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