
A close race is anticipated as Perikatan Nasional seeks to defend the rural seat, once a Barisan Nasional stronghold.
For PN, victory would strengthen the overwhelming majority it already holds in the 45-seat state assembly.
A PN victory would also suggest that accusations of incompetence levelled at the PAS-led state government have failed to sway voters here.
BN, on the other hand, is seeking to add to the solitary seat it holds in Kelantan, hoping that it marks another step in recovering its support among the Malays.
Unlike previous by-elections contested by Umno, party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has been heavily involved in campaigning, attending multiple events and going door-to-door to meet residents.
Zahid himself admitted to this, and has visited Nenggiri six times over the past two weeks to canvas support.
Political analyst Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaysia said a BN win would give Umno a much-needed shot in the arm ahead of its annual general assembly next week, which was why Zahid has been more active than usual.
“If Umno wins this by-election, Zahid will bring this tale of victory (to the general assembly) to tell of how the party is recovering its support, even being able to defeat PN, especially PAS, in a Malay-majority seat,” he told FMT.
Tawfik also said victory would help Zahid shore up support within Umno, following the party’s poor electoral performances under his leadership in the 2022 general election and the six state elections last year.
“He has been frequently on the ground in Nenggiri because he’s on a special mission to ensure victory for the Umno candidate and safeguard his position as party president and deputy prime minister ahead of the general assembly,” he said.
Umno has contested two by-elections since 2022, winning the Pelangai state seat in Pahang comfortably. However, it was soundly beaten by PAS in the Kemaman parliamentary seat in Terengganu.
The BN lynchpin registered its worst electoral performance in GE15, winning just 27 seats and 31% of the popular vote. It also won only 19 of the 108 seats contested in the six state elections.
In the race for the Nenggiri seat, Umno’s Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani is going head-to-head against PN’s Rizwadi Ismail, a former divisional PAS Youth leader who is now with Bersatu.
The seat has been closely contested in the last two elections, with BN winning by just 461 votes in 2018 before PN wrested it for the first time last year, with a slightly larger 810-vote majority.
Key factors to watch
A variety of issues plaguing Nenggiri residents have been brought to the surface in the past two weeks, from water and electricity supply woes, and delayed delivery of thousands of land grants for Felda settlers, to the 50km journey residents have to make just to get to an ATM.
The latter has caused the government to act quickly by installing an ATM at a business premises in Kampung Jerek, just two days before polling day.
Other issues highlighted involve the Orang Asli in Nenggiri, who make up about 14% of the 20,259 voters here and have been said to be a BN vote bank. In the event that the Malay votes are evenly split, the Orang Asli may well be the kingmaker in this by-election.
In his manifesto, the PN candidate pledged to appoint a special officer from among the Orang Asli if elected. But Tawfik believes this may not sway the community given that Ramli Nor, the nation’s sole Orang Asli MP, has been actively campaigning for BN.
The political pundit also said BN’s strategy of skipping the manifesto and going house to house allowed its leaders and machinery to deliver their message directly to voters.
“The people of Nenggiri just want to know what they stand to get individually. They’re not thinking about the contents of (manifestos or) ceramahs, which PN has been holding daily.”
However, Universiti Teknologi Mara’s Ariff Aizuddin Azlan and Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said offering a manifesto gave PN a slight edge considering predictions of a close race.
Ariff said PN’s manifesto gives Nenggiri voters a clearer picture of how they would be served if Rizwadi is elected.
Fauzi said manifestos demonstrate a candidate’s resolve to take on the responsibilities of an elected representative, while BN’s decision not to put one forward gave the impression that it took Malay voters lightly.
Stay current - Follow FMT on WhatsApp, Google news and Telegram