Season starter or season ender?
That is the question facing Arsenal and Spurs who meet in another early-season blockbuster at Tottenham on Sunday (9pm in Malaysia).
If it’s premature to be coming to conclusions, the loser could be looking at an ominously widening gap behind the pacesetters.
If Arsenal lose, they are likely to be five points behind Manchester City (where they go next weekend) and Liverpool who both have benign home games.
The two northwest giants entertain Brentford and Nottingham Forest, respectively.
Spurs are already five points behind the two leaders and could slip to a distant eight with defeat against their neighbours.
So, even though Pep Guardiola considers this weekend the real start, it has a lot riding on it.
The City boss quipped that the first three games were ‘pre-season’, but made sure he collected maximum points as did Liverpool.
Only two points separated the Gunners from City last season and they will know they’ve already thrown away two at home to Brighton.
Over a nine-month slog, clubs can always look back to where vital points were won and lost in moments that may have seemed inconsequential at the time.
But when Declan Rice kicked the ball away against Brighton, it was not one of them.
As every Gooner is painfully aware, the England midfielder, already on a yellow card, was harshly sent off as Arsenal led 1-0.
But the 10 men couldn’t prevent the Seagulls from coming back to snatch a draw.
Now that ‘benign’ fixture suddenly threatens the entire season.
The loss of Rice, banned for the Spurs game, is magnified by an injury crisis that couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Next Thursday Arsenal open their Champions League campaign at Atalanta before going to City on Sunday.
It’s three games away from The Emirates that could define their season.
If that seems a malignant hand dealt by the fixture computer, there may be a certain poetic justice in it being Arsenal who are the team hardest hit by the international break.
After all, it was Arsene Wenger who compared it to having to loan your car to someone and finding it dumped in a field with no petrol.
In this case, there are two ‘cars’ that have not been returned in roadworthy condition.
The main casualty is skipper Martin Odegaard who was last seen boarding a plane on crutches with no shoe on his left foot.
The ‘accident’ occurred while he was playing for Norway in a 2-1 win over Austria in the Nations League on Monday.
The prognosis is a bad ankle injury that could take at least three weeks to repair.
Besides Spurs on Sunday, he would miss the crucial clash at City and even the visit of Paris Saint Germain on October 1.
The other ‘car’ is new Italian marque, Riccardo Calafiori, who had a bit of a fender bender during Italy’s win over France.
The left-back was also seen on crutches after a freak collision with Ousmane Dembele but his calf injury is not deemed to be serious.
But he has yet to start since his £42m move from Bologna and may have to be content with another place on the bench against Spurs.
Mikel Arteta will be desperately hoping that this is the end of the run of injuries that could undermine them before they’re out of the blocks.
It began with another new signing, Mikel Merino, damaging his shoulder in training.
The Spanish midfielder has yet to appear.
At least the Spanish manager can be consoled by the sheer depth of his squad.
While the versatile Jurrien Timber is likely to go to left-back if Calafiori doesn’t start, Kai Havertz may drop back for Odegaard.
The perennially injured Gabriel Jesus may even be fit and there’s always Leandro Trossard who can play anywhere.
Arteta has quality cover in just about every position and may call upon the left-field loan signing of Raheem Sterling as an impact sub.
Having worked with Sterling at City, Arteta may know how to get the best out of the Chelsea misfit.
The England man’s value has plummeted since he starred in the Euros played in 2021 and, at 29, he will know that he’s entering the Last Chance Saloon with the Gunners.
It could be yet another shrewd move by a shrewd manager.
This game also presents a big test for Spurs’ boss Ange Postecoglou.
Still popular with the fans, the Aussie has brought an attacking mindset to the club after years of negativity, but needs to win something.
He can’t complain about the amount of money that’s been spent, but if he has a quibble, it may be whether it’s been invested wisely.
James Maddison looked a steal for £45m early last season but has not been the same since injury.
Paying Bournemouth £65m for Dominic Solanke suggests they’ve been ripped off as they were when Forest took them for £47.5m for Brennan Johnson.
You can see what Spurs are trying to do, buying English attacking talent but are they that good?
And on the evidence of the 2-1 defeat at Newcastle, Spurs can still be Spursy.
Italian keeper Guglielmo Vicario has the reflexes of a fighter pilot but is a cat on hot bricks at corners.
From this vantage point, they still look a Jekyll and Hyde side but at least they don’t have the injuries that Arsenal have.
Their doubts are Richarlison, Micky van der Ven and Solanke, who has endured a frustrating start to his big career move.
Spurs will have the crowd behind them and may see this as good a chance as any for a statement victory over under-strength rivals.
For Arsenal, it could also mean a lot. Their immediate fixtures are daunting and it will take character to come through unscathed.
But if they can do it and shock City, it could be their season.
Victory in the north London derby would be the perfect way to start.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
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